The message had merely mentioned an explosion, and they’d have to wait till morning Brunei time to find out exactly what was involved, but the mention of the Spratlys had Admiral Reese, Chief of Naval Operations, already off and running. The suspected explosion, if it was manmade, could be sabotage on one of the oil rigs or drill ships. If so, it opened a hornet’s nest of geopolitical significance.
“Mr. President,” CNO Reese said, “there are two consequences that directly resulted from the earlier administration’s defense cuts and lack of strategic overview in East Asia. Number one, they cut the budget first, as usual, then tried to figure out strategy. Back to front.”
“Stern to bow, Admiral,” the President joshed.
Reese allowed himself a brief smile in return, but his mood was too braced for relaxing this day. “The second point, Mr. President, is that because of our cutbacks and our loss of Subic Bay and Clark Field in the Philippines, we are perceived by the East and Southeast Asian countries no longer as ‘stayers.’ I mean by this that our loss of a solid base from which to move into the South China Sea, despite the Seventh Fleet’s berthing facilities in Singapore, creates the perception in these Third World countries — and not only in them — that this is not a United States determined to stay for the long haul. And in that mode of uncertainty, we have individual countries starting an arms race in the region. They figure if the U.S. doesn’t have a firm foreign policy — or rather, a policy determined primarily by strategic responsibilities instead of budget deficit considerations — then they have to look after themselves. Can’t say I blame ‘em.”
The admiral turned to a wall chart on naval growth in the Pacific. “China makes no bones about the fact that she wants blue water capability. She’s been hankering for it for a long time. She hasn’t got it yet, but in our perceived absence she means to have it as quickly as possible. SIGINT tells us that the Chinese plan to be ready with carriers, the new Luhu guided missile destroyers, and the new Russian Kilo derivative submarines by 2007. That’s not far away, Mr. President. We had hoped we might continue to cut the U.S. deficit by selling them some of our used carriers and other warships. Problem is, Russia is offering bargain-basement prices in China and Southeast Asia. Most importantly, potential buyers know the Russians can establish ‘through-life’ support and maintenance, because the Russians, ironically, keep building them while we’re cutting back and are unable to promise any kind of ‘through-life’ warranty.”
The admiral’s assistant flicked over the China chart to one of Japan. “A further measure of these Asian countries’ independence is the fact that the Japanese Defense Force, for example, now has the best ship-carrying air defense system.”
“In Southeast Asia?” the President interjected.
“No, sir,” the CNO replied. Maybe he was getting through at last, he thought. “The best in the world.”
“Could I cut in here?” asked David Noyer, director of the CIA.
“Please,” the President invited.
“Mr. President, in addition to what the admiral says, the agency is convinced that Japan has a three- to four-month capability to develop nuclear bombs.”
The President tried not to show any surprise, but his assistant, Bruce Ellman, spotted the telltale push of the leather-bound blotter atop the desk, where he was glancing at the cable from the SOSUS posts.
“In twelve to sixteen weeks,” the President said, “you’re telling me Japan could field nuclear bombs?”
“Yes,” Noyer replied. “In November ‘ninety-three they began importing over twenty tons of plutonium for their fast breeder reactors. At least that’s what they told us it was for. They already had over five hundred pounds of the stuff by the late eighties.”
“That shipment from France?” Admiral Reese put in.
“Correct,” Noyer confirmed.
Reese shook his head disgustedly. “Those damn Frenchmen’d sell arsenic to their mothers if they could.”
The President ignored George Reese’s well-known Franco-phobia, which stemmed from France’s refusal to let the U.S. Air Force fly through French airspace en route to bomb Khadafy in Libya years before.
“And,” Reese added, “more to the point, I’ll warrant that our intelligence agency isn’t the only one that knows of the Japanese capabilities.” He looked at Noyer. “No offense to the CIA, David.”
“None taken, Admiral,” Noyer assured him. “You’ve hit the proverbial nail on the head. Ever since Shinseito — the conservative New Life party in Japan — gained power over the socialists, they’ve helped push the Liberal Democratic party majority in support of a more active role for the Japanese Defense Force.”
“The Japanese offense force,” the President posited.
“Well, whatever they want to call it, Mr. President, I don’t think you can fault them, with that maniac North Korean within nuclear- and Scud-hitting distance of Tokyo.”
“No,” the President agreed, “you can’t, but if I get your drift, gentlemen, you’re telling me that because of our lack of a firm foreign policy — compliments of the previous administration — Japan as well as the Southeast Asian countries we’ve mentioned in the area feel more vulnerable because of our withdrawal from the Philippine bases. So they’re seeking the capacity to defend themselves should North Korea or anyone else start a war. They also see Japan rearming in the face of increased Russian presence in the East China Sea, and know North Korea probably has nuclear weapons. In any case, I seriously doubt that their Southeast Asian neighbors’ intelligence agencies don’t know about Japan’s nuclear ability too — and that alone would frighten the bejaysus out of any of Japan’s neighbors.”
Noyer and Reese nodded in unison, with Reese turning to the next info chart “Exactly. Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines, Vietnam, China were all attacked by Japan in World War Two when her oil and raw materials ran out after FDR’s embargo. And if this Spratly Islands issue blows up and there’s a shooting gallery in and around the trade routes from the Middle East that pass through there, then Japan couldn’t last very long without acquiring new oil and raw materials that come through to her via the South China Sea.”
“So now,” the President said, “we have North Korea, South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, and Indonesia all rearming as fast as they can.”
“Yes, sir. Even the Aussies and New Zealanders are upgrading.”
“Why?”
“They’ve got a defense pact with Malaysia, Singapore, and Brunei, but Indonesia’s presence in West Irian, or what used to be called West New Guinea, is the Australians’ big worry. You think we have human rights problems with China vis-à-vis our trade and most-favored-nation clause. You should look at Australia’s Joint Intelligence Bureau report on what the Indonesians are up to in West Irian and Timor. It’s take the villagers out and shoot them on the spot. Besides, Indonesia’s population is 175 million, Australia’s is barely fifteen, and it’s only a half-hour hop from New Guinea to Australia. All the Aussies have up there in the north are crocodiles and Darwin. Most Australians are crammed into the far southeast comer.
“We’ve got some damned important defense radar and communications sites up there,” Reese concluded.
“They wouldn’t last long,” Noyer said, “if the Indonesians really wanted to get them. But I’m not concerned about the Aussies for the moment. It’s all this strutting in the Southeast Asian states over the Spratlys that’s got me worried.”
“Yes,” the President said, cutting in. “We’ve got to run this Spratly incident to ground — if you’ll pardon the mixed metaphor — before the accusations start flying, giving every one of those countries the national justification for rearming. Nothing like a nice little war, gentlemen, to boost the ruling parties’ fortunes at home.”
“Good point,” Noyer conceded. “We’ve got our finger on the pulse with regards to that one — our military attaches, et cetera — but it’s difficult to see the whole picture at any one time. Too many players.”
“Too many or not,” the President continued, “we’ve got to get on top of this thing. And I want the American public informed because if, God forbid, I have to send American boys over there, I don’t want it done on some damned flimsy bit of evidence.”
Noyer sighed. “It’ll be difficult. I mean, the American public isn’t used to thinking about Southeast Asia. Now, if it was Europe—”
“Well, they’d better start,” the President said unequivocally, “because we all know, gentlemen, we’re on the threshold of the Pacific century. Europe’s only going to constitute six and a half percent of the world’s population, and in any case it’s going to have to fix its own business. But if we’re to look after our business — and I don’t want to put this thing just in terms of dollars and cents, but the dollars and cents are there nevertheless — we need those Asian trade routes more than most, and we need them open all the time.”
“Agreed,” Noyer said. “I think we had better start some position papers for selected congressmen.”
“Not for selected congressmen, David, for all congressmen. That’s another thing I don’t want going on around here. If it leaks out that we’re only giving the information to certain congressmen, it’ll look like what it is — selective feeding. I don’t want any part of that. Not in this situation. I agree, you’re right, the foreign policy of this country’s been a basket case due to the previous administration. But now’s the time — and I hope to God it isn’t too late — that we can send out the message that we do not want, nor will we tolerate, another Yugoslavia in Asia.”
“Mr. President,” Noyer said, “I wouldn’t be honest with you if I didn’t tell you that that’s exactly what we might end up with.”
“Initially,” the President conceded, “we may not be able to prevent that, but my point is that if it starts, we’re not going to have a grannies’ conference here and take six months to decide what we’re going to do. I want the information about what’s going on down there confirmed and reconfirmed, and I want a U.S.-led U.N. multilateral strategic and tactical plan on my desk within seventy-two hours. That will tell me what we are in a position to undertake and, perhaps more importantly, what we are not in a position to do at the moment.”
“We’ll do the best we can, Mr. President.”
“Another thing, David,” the President warned Noyer, “I don’t want any CNN reporter scooping me on the ‘Larry King Show.’ Got that?”
“Yes, sir.”
“How did they do that in Iraq? I mean CNN getting all that stuff out of Baghdad?”
“Used what we call a four phone, Mr. President,” Noyer explained. “You take a small umbrellalike antenna, beam it up to the satellite, and bounce it off right to home base. Very expensive.”
“Well, I don’t want any four phones popping up with anything we’re not ready for, understand?”
“I understand, sir, but they’re a determined lot.”
“Then you be more determined.”
“Very good, Mr. President.”
“And notify the U.N.’s secretary general about this Spratly situation as soon as you have details.” The President turned his attention to Admiral Reese. “George, I assume the Navy’s already on to this, trying to find out just what happened to that drill ship.”
“Yes, Mr. President. I’ve contacted COMSUBPAC in Hawaii and we have an SSN sub, the USS Santa Fe, west of Borneo and the Spratlys in the Sulu Sea. It’s part of the Enterprise battle group and is being dispatched via Balabac Strait between the Philippines and the Malaysian part of Borneo.”
“Surface or submerged?”
“Surface through the shallow straits and submerged once we get into the Spratly area, but we can’t get too close to the drill ship position because the bottom is relatively shallow around those coral reefs, et cetera.”
“Then how are you going to get anybody in there, at least without advertising the fact?”
“The sub, Mr. President. It wasn’t the closest, but it’s one with an SDV aboard.”
“SDV?”
“Swimmer Delivery Vehicle. Can carry up to half a dozen divers, and they can exit the vehicle quickly. It’s a separate container behind the sail of the sub.”
“So we’re sending in frogmen?”
Reese couldn’t hide a smile of amusement. “I haven’t heard that term in thirty years, Mr. President. The swimmers will fan out and gather what evidence they can.”
“You think they’ll find any?”
“They’re the best we have, Mr. President. And COMSUBPAC has notified our British liaison officers with the Royal Brunei Army. British Petroleum naturally wants to know what’s going on as well. Apparently the rigs and drill ships are equipped with safety video units in cradles high above the deck. It’s designed — the video unit, I mean — to be easily scooped up from a chopper.”
“All right. Let me know as soon as you have something.”
“Yes, sir.”