‘T he Iranians have successfully enriched over 1800 kilograms of weapons-grade uranium, Mr President, which is more than enough to construct a nuclear bomb capable of destroying the Old City of Jerusalem or Tel Aviv.’
Vice President Walter Montgomery, bald and overweight, glared around the polished mahogany table in the White House’s newly renovated Situation Room, daring anyone to challenge him. The National Security Council was made up of some of the most powerful men and women in the United States: the Secretary of Defense, the Secretary of State, the Secretary of the Treasury, the National Security Advisor, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and the Director of National Intelligence. Their senior advisors were seated in the row of chairs beneath the new flatscreen televisions that lined the walls.
‘‘I’ve asked the CIA to brief us on the Iranian situation,’ the Vice President concluded irritably, nodding towards the man waiting at the briefing lectern.
Curtis O’Connor had recently returned from a covert intelligence operation deep inside the Islamic Republic of Iran. He knew the risks involved if the United States were to open up a third front in the Middle East. The Taliban were already gaining the upper hand in Afghanistan, and further to the west over 4000 young Americans had been killed in combat in Iraq. Tens of thousands more soldiers were disabled for life.
‘Operation Sassanid was launched two years ago, following President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s refusal to halt the enrichment of uranium,’ O’Connor began. ‘Sassanid includes electronic intercepts of phone conversations, emails and fax transmissions, as well as satellite surveillance of areas where we suspect the Iranians are constructing nuclear facilities.’ The National Reconnaissance Office’s KeyHole spy satellites were the size of school buses, and travelled at over six kilometres a second. Orbiting as high as 36 000 kilometres above the Islamic Republic, they provided imagery so precise that vehicle registration plates and street numbers on buildings were clearly visible. The sophisticated cameras also operated in the near infra-red and thermal infra-red spectra, and could peer through darkness and clouds. But as good as the coverage was, O’Connor knew there were still gaps.
‘Despite our 24/7 coverage, we don’t have reliable detection of Iranian bunker systems or tunnels, and we suspect they may be constructing more nuclear plants deep underground,’ O’Connor continued. ‘Nor can satellite imagery provide precise information on what might be going on inside a particular building. Up until now, Iran has only admitted to two nuclear facilities. The first is located in Isfahan in central Iran.’ O’Connor used a laser pointer to indicate the facility’s location on the map behind him. ‘Isfahan’s main function is to convert yellowcake into uranium hexafluoride. The second facility is in Natanz.’ He pointed to an area south of Tehran.
‘Despite relying more heavily on technology, we have still managed to maintain some agents on the ground,’ O’Connor said, glancing at the Secretary of Defense, ‘and we now have both facilities under constant ground surveillance. One of our agents has confirmed that the Natanz facility contains high-speed centrifuges, perhaps as many as 50 000, which are used to convert the Isfahan hexafluoride into highly enriched weapons-grade uranium. Of greater concern is a new facility under construction deep inside a mountain complex at Fordo, near the ancient city of Qom.’ O’Connor indicated a range of hills to the south-west of Tehran. ‘This facility is located on an Islamic Revolutionary Guard base, and it’s managed by the Atomic Energy Organisation of Iran – or AEOI – although few know of its construction, even amongst those who work for the AEOI.’
‘But it’s for military use?’ President Denver Harrison looked tired and confused. Now well into his second term, he’d aged considerably. Curtis O’Connor had long thought this president out of his depth. The real power in the administration rested in the hands of the irascible Vice President Montgomery.
‘Our agent in Qom thinks so, Mr President. He’s counted just 3000 centrifuges. That’s too few to enrich enough uranium for a nuclear power station -’
‘But enough to create several nuclear bombs,’ Montgomery cut in. ‘Time is running out, Mr President. We need to take out all three facilities, and we need to do it now.’
‘The Israelis are already considering that option,’ the Secretary of State added. ‘Ahmadinejad’s threats to wipe Israel off the map have tried Israeli patience to the limit, and we fear they will launch a preemptive strike.’ The Secretary of State went no further. Everyone in the room knew that Israel was an undeclared nuclear power, and there was already a precedent. In 1956, Egypt’s charismatic president Gamal Nasser seized the Suez Canal and sank dozens of ships laden with concrete to deny its use to the West, and the Israelis acted without the imprimatur of their great and powerful friend. Without informing President Eisenhower, Prime Minister David Ben-Gurion ordered Israeli tanks into the Egyptian-held Gaza and General Ariel Sharon’s paratroopers attacked deep into the Sinai Desert, surprising the Egyptians on the passes a few miles from the canal. Might Israel act unilaterally again? The question hung in the tense atmosphere around the table.
‘Are the Iranians capable of striking Israel?’ the President asked, looking at O’Connor.
‘Not yet, but they’re very close to testing a new version of their Sejil-2 missile.’ O’Connor flashed up a photograph of the latest Iranian surface-to-surface missile on a screen. The gleaming black twenty-metre-high Sejil-2 stood on its launch pad amongst the foothills of a mountain range to the south-west of Tehran. ‘The Sejil-2 will be capable of delivering a nuclear warhead and will be powered by solid-fuel rocket motors similar to those that powered our Minuteman 1 missiles. Although that’s reasonably old technology by our standards, it represents a significant step forward for the Iranians, and will give their missile a range of over 2000 kilometres.’ O’Connor pressed a remote and a map of the Middle East and Eastern Europe came up on a second screen. ‘The Iranians could then not only wipe out Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, but reach all of our bases in the Middle East, even from eastern Iran; and from western Iran, cities like Athens and Istanbul will also be in range.’
‘All the more reason we should act before they do,’ the Vice President urged.
O’Connor shook his head. ‘All of our analysis indicates that a strike against Iran would be a disaster, Mr President. For one thing, it would almost certainly result in the Iranians closing the Straits of Hormuz. Eighty per cent of the world’s oil supply flows through those straits.’
Montgomery was apoplectic, but O’Connor pressed on. ‘Mr President, our intelligence indicates that the Fordo facility is buried so deep within the surrounding mountains, even our most powerful bunker-busting bombs wouldn’t touch it. It’s a widely held view amongst many of our analysts that rather than attacking Iran, the better strategy would be to establish a dialogue with Iran’s ruling elite, and with Syria. The real power in Iran does not rest with Ahmadinejad, but with the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khomenei. If the United States were to adopt a more balanced foreign policy towards the Occupied Territories, and increase pressure on Israel to cease building settlements and to reach a solution on the Palestinian question, in our view, the Iranians may come to the table.’
‘That’s enough, O’Connor,’ the Vice President rasped. ‘You’re operating well above your pay grade, and you’re obviously not aware of the experiments being conducted out of Alaska.’ The President looked puzzled. ‘Seismic tomography, Mr President,’ Montgomery explained. ‘Extremely low-frequency radio waves that can be targeted to discover the precise locations of facilities underground. There are promising indications that if the power is increased to sufficient levels, the tunnels and the facilities within them can be destroyed.’
‘Get me DDO Wiley on the phone, now!’ Montgomery barked at his secretary as he stormed back into his office. The CIA’s Deputy Director of Operations was responsible for all United States covert spy operations around the world, and Howard J. Wiley was now the second-most powerful man in the CIA. He often knew more than the director, an appointment held in the past by influential men like George Bush Snr and William J. Casey.
‘Who the fuck does this O’Connor think he is?’ Vice President Montgomery demanded after DDO Wiley came on the secure line.
‘I’ve just heard, Mr Vice President. I can assure you, he’ll be disciplined.’
‘Disciplined? He needs to be fucking well sacked! If the O’Connors of this world get their way, we’ll be inviting Ahmadinejad and his mad mullahs to a fucking barbecue on the lawns of the White House! Get him out of Washington. He’s far too cosy with those jerk-offs in the State Department. Send him off to keep an eye on Mugabe and his gangsters. Or better still, fuck him off to Alaska. The last time I was there it was forty below. Perhaps living with the goddamned huskies and bears will give him a better perspective.’
‘Consider it done, Mr Vice President,’ DDO Wiley responded, but he was wasting his breath. The line had already gone dead.