The two state troopers who’d been stationed on the porch had left when Natasha and Linnaman arrived, and with no one else around, the night closed in on me, embraced me, stinging and cold and quiet and still.
I headed down the driveway, mentally evaluating the clues.
Every crime occurs at the nexus of five factors:
(1) offender desire
(2) target availability
(3) location
(4) time
(5) lack of authority figure or supervision
Take away any of the five and you have no crime. Entire schools of criminological theory have sprung up over the last 130 years focusing on how to eliminate one or another of the factors from the crime equation.
Some investigators, mostly profilers and forensic psychologists, focus on the first issue-the offender’s motivation: Why does he do it? What’s going through his head at the time of the crime? Personally, I’ve found it’s more helpful to just accept the fact that this person was motivated, for whatever reason-and probably for more than one-to commit the offense.
Other theorists study victimology or location: Who was victimized? How can you keep these people from being in high-risk areas at high-risk times? Some researchers study how people perceive public and private spaces and the likelihood of crime in those locations. Others track the temporal fluctuations of crime. And, of course, some criminologists try to increase (or give the appearance of increased) law enforcement presence, such as leaving empty police cars on busy roads or installing fake video surveillance cameras in conspicuous places.
Five factors.
Stop one, stop the crime.
Yet even though it’s vital to deter crimes whenever possible, I’ve always been more in the business of solving them after they do occur.
Like today at 1:48 p.m.-if the recollection of Mrs. Frasier was correct.
Three initial questions rolled through my mind: Why then? Why there? Why Ardis and Lizzie?
As I walked toward the mailbox, I clicked through what we knew so far about the progression of events:
1:48 p.m.
Shots fired-Still need to confirm the time.
2:41 p.m.
Snowmobile tracks veering off the trail are discovered entering a stretch of open water on Tomahawk Lake. Deputy Ellory photographs the tracks, then calls the FBI, emails the photos to the Lab.
3:30 p.m.
The Lab identifies the tracks, and local law enforcement narrows down the pool of possible victims to four people in the area who own that model snowmobile.
4:02 p.m.
Officers follow up on the owners and find Ardis and Lizzie Pickron murdered; Donnie missing.
4:30 p.m.
Admiral Winchester, the Chief of Naval Operations, is already pressuring FBI Director Wellington to have agents look into the case.
A thought: So why the FBI and not NCIS? But the answer was immediately obvious: the Naval Criminal Investigative Service only investigates crimes involving active duty military personnel, and Donnie was retired military rather than active duty.
That left the Bureau rather than NCIS, but still-why the high-level interest in a sawmill worker’s disappearance?
That was the big question. The hinge upon which all the other facts swung.
The Navy’s interest in the crime and the recently accessed websites on Ohio Class submarines didn’t support the theory that the snowmobile’s trip off the ice and Donnie’s disappearance were the result of a simple suicide or a haphazard accident during a flight from a crime scene.
It didn’t appear to be a robbery gone bad either.
When you move through a case, it’s best to ask the sensible, obvious questions first, just like a reporter might do: Who? What? Where? When? Why? How?
So, where had Donnie been earlier today? Did he show up at work? If this was a setup to make him look guilty, why would he be targeted? What had he done or what did he know that caused him to end up in someone’s crosshairs? And what might decades-old submarine deployment records have to do with anything? And why would Donnie-or anyone else-have been so careless as to look them up on his computer after the murders?
And of course, what about the three shots through the window? Either they were fired out of necessity or they were not. But what necessity?
Questions, questions.
Too little data.
I started back for the house. The moon had slipped behind a stray cloud, leaving the stars to rule the night. Seeing them reminded me of the times in college when I worked as a wilderness guide in North Carolina. After enough nights out on the trail you begin to know which stars will appear first, emerging slowly through the late twilight. There you are, Vega, and Castor and Arcturus, so good to see you. How’ve you been? How has the night on the other side of the world been treating you?
Everything was so simple in those days, life bared down to the basics of survival. Eat. Sleep. Climb. Paddle. You’re forced to put all the niceties and creature comforts of modern life behind you and get back to the essentials. Survival. Relationships. Encountering the real.
I looked at the house again.
Encountering the real.
Life.
Death.
Two bodies. A missing snowmobiler.
Pausing at the side of the house, I bent and took a picture of the two sets of boot prints with my phone. Committed the imprint patterns to memory.
Then, leaving the stars behind, I quietly ascended the porch steps.
After a body is moved, the crime scene is altered forever, so contrary to what you might see in the movies, forensics examiners and evidence response teams are not typically in a hurry to remove bodies from a scene. Unless there’s something present that would contaminate or destroy evidence (wind, water, etc.) they’ll leave the corpse, sometimes for several hours, as they photograph it, check the core temperature to establish time of death, look at bloodstain patterns, and study the degree of and locations of the pooling of blood inside the body before removing it for an autopsy.
I spent another hour or so studying the scene, evaluating what I did know and comparing that to what I did not, then when Natasha and Linnaman were preparing to remove the bodies I realized it was almost 9:30 p.m. and I still hadn’t called my brother.
I went into the study, eased the door shut. Hesitated for a moment.
Then pulled out my phone.